China's Economic Revision and Future Prospects

Economic Revision and GDP Growth

• China revised its GDP for 2023 upwards by 2.7%, reaching a new total of 129.4 trillion yuan ($17.73 trillion).
• This revision is part of the fifth national economic census and follows previous adjustments of 2.1% for 2018 and 3.4% for 2013.
• The revision reflects China's resilience to various internal and external challenges over the past five years, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The revision is not expected to significantly impact the GDP growth rate for 2024.

Future Economic Plans and Challenges

• China aims for a growth target of "around 5%" for 2025, amidst challenges like potential U.S. tariff hikes.
• Policy measures include increasing the budget deficit and issuing more debt to support economic growth.
• President Xi Jinping's vision of "Chinese-style modernization" aims to double the economy's size by 2035, requiring an average annual growth rate of 4.7%.

Economic Census and Industry Changes

• The economic census indicated a 52.7% rise in business entities in the secondary and tertiary sectors since 2018, while employment growth lagged at 11.9%.
• Tertiary industry employment increased by 25.6% by the end of 2023, whereas secondary industry employment decreased by 4.8%.
• The property sector faces a significant decline, with employment dropping by 27% to 2.71 million by the end of 2023.

Outlook and International Factors

• The World Bank adjusted China's growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 upwards but noted challenges like subdued household and business confidence and issues in the property sector.
• The upcoming U.S. administration may bring further trade tensions, affecting China's economic strategies.