UNDP Report Highlights Economic Impact of West Asia Conflict on India | Current Affairs | Vision IAS

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In Summary

  • Report notes South Asia faces largest economic losses from Middle East conflict, potentially pushing 2.5 million Indians into poverty.
  • Rising gas prices weaken Indian Rupee, shift to coal, and threaten ~US$48 billion non-oil exports and vital Kharif season due to fertilizer import reliance.
  • Policy priorities include shock-responsive social protection, MSME resilience, reducing structural exposure via renewables, and deepening regional cooperation for energy/food security.

In Summary

Report titled ‘Military Escalation In The Middle East: Human Development Impacts Across Asia And The Pacific’ noted that the South Asia bears the largest absolute and relative economic losses.

Impact of conflict on India

  • Human Development: The crisis could push nearly 2.5 million Indians into poverty
  • Energy & Finance: Rising gas prices have led to weakening of Indian Rupee and forced a shift to coal, elevating pollution and health risks.
    • India gets over 40% of its oil imports and 90% of all LPG imports from West Asia.
  • Trade & Health: Disruptions (such as stranded air cargo) threaten ~ US$48 billion non-oil exports to West Asia
  • Agriculture & Food: West Asia supplies over 45% of India’s fertilizer imports, and 85% of domestic urea production relies on imported liquefied natural gas
    • A prolonged disruption threatens the vital upcoming Kharif (monsoon) season.
  • Labour & Remittances: About 9.37 million Indians in the Gulf are exposed to labour disruptions, threatening the 38 to 40% of inward remittances they generate. 

Policy priorities to build long-term resilience 

  • Strengthen Shock-Responsive Social Protection: Transition from blanket subsidies to targeted cash transfers that reach informal workers, migrants, and women.
  • Protect Livelihoods and MSME Resilience: Provide concessional credit, guarantee mechanisms, and business continuity support for small firms.
  • Reduce Structural Exposure: Invest in renewable energy, diversify input sources, and strengthen domestic food systems to break the cycle of vulnerability to external global shocks.
  • Deepen Regional Cooperation: The report recommends establishing joint approaches to energy and food security (such as diversified supply and stock management).
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RELATED TERMS

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Renewable Energy

Energy derived from natural sources that are replenished at a higher rate than they are consumed, such as solar, wind, geothermal, and hydropower. COP-28 set a goal to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

MSME

सूक्ष्म, लघु और मध्यम उद्यम (Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises) भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था का एक महत्वपूर्ण हिस्सा हैं। निर्यात संवर्धन में इनकी भूमिका महत्वपूर्ण है, और उन्हें अंतर्राष्ट्रीय व्यापार में भाग लेने और प्रक्रियाओं को समझने में सहायता की आवश्यकता होती है।

Shock-Responsive Social Protection

Social protection systems designed to be flexible and adaptable to respond quickly to various shocks, such as economic crises, natural disasters, or conflicts, ensuring vulnerable populations are supported.

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