Impact of February Climate in North India on Agriculture

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected warmer than normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall for north India in February, which could adversely impact agriculture.

Potential Impact on Crops

• Wheat:
  • Wheat, a crucial Rabi crop, is at risk during its flowering and grain filling stages.
  • Major wheat-producing states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are expected to be most affected.
  • Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh may face less impact due to more favorable weather conditions.
• Other Crops:
  • Mustard and chickpea crops may mature early.
  • Horticultural crops like apples and temperate stone fruits could experience premature bud break and early flowering, leading to poor fruit quality and yield.

Temperature and Rainfall Forecast

• Night temperatures are expected to be above normal in most parts of the country, except in northwest and southern peninsular India.
• Day temperatures may be normal to above normal in most regions, with some areas in west-central and southern peninsular India experiencing below-normal maximum temperatures.

Global Climate Conditions

• Weak La Niña conditions are present over the equatorial Pacific, with below-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
• These conditions are expected to persist until April 2025, transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions, which can influence monsoon performance.