The Yarlung Zangbo Dam Project and Its Implications

The proposed construction of a massive hydroelectric dam by China on the Yarlung Zangbo river in Tibet has raised significant concerns for India, primarily due to its potential impact on the environment, water flow, and bilateral relations.

Importance of the Yarlung Zangbo

• The Yarlung Zangbo river originates in Tibet and becomes the Brahmaputra in Assam, India.
• It is also known as the Siang in Arunachal Pradesh, India.
• The river is crucial for millions in India's northeastern states and Bangladesh.

China's Hydroelectric Ambitions

• Part of China's strategy to transition from coal to renewable energy, particularly hydroelectric power, is outlined in its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025).
• China aims for carbon neutrality by 2060, but reliance on large-scale hydroelectric projects is concerning.

International Legal Concerns

• China and India are not signatories to the UN Watercourses Convention 1997, which emphasizes equitable utilization and cooperation.
• China claims it follows principles of international cooperation and protection but faces accusations of using water as a "powerful tool."

Water Security and Bilateral Relations

• India, a lower riparian state, relies on rivers from Tibet for one-third of its water supply.
• Expired MoUs on water data about the Sutlej and Brahmaputra rivers highlight the need for renewed cooperation.
• An expert level mechanism (ELM) exists for water-related matters, proving significant in the absence of formal agreements.

Environmental and Seismic Risks

• The dam is located in a seismically active region, risking earthquakes and catastrophic consequences.
• Environmental impacts include disrupted ecosystems, altered sediment flow, and increased erosion.

Regional Implications

• Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Pakistan could be affected by water projects in Tibet, but political tensions complicate regional cooperation.
• Bangladesh's growing ties with China and recent political changes affect its stance towards the project.

Political Influence

• Water issues between India and China are inextricably linked to political relations.
• Recent diplomatic engagements suggest potential for renewed information-sharing agreements.

For further insights and analysis, refer to the contributions by Amit Ranjan, Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), National University of Singapore (NUS), and Nabeela Siddiqui, Assistant Professor at Vinayaka Mission’s Law School (VMLS), Chennai.