Impact of Rainfall Variability on Agriculture

A study published in the Reserve Bank of India’s March bulletin addresses the increasing variability in rainfall and its impact on food-crop production, underscoring the crucial role of the monsoon in Indian agriculture.

Importance of Monsoon

• Modern irrigation and climate-resilient seeds have provided some relief, but monsoons remain decisive for agriculture.
• The southwest monsoon is critical for the kharif season. Erratic rain can disrupt crop cycles and exacerbate pest and disease issues, while good rainfall boosts productivity and farm output.
• A favorable monsoon supports the rabi season by providing ample soil moisture and reservoir levels, benefiting crops like wheat, mustard, and lentils.

Crop Production Statistics

• Annual growth in coarse cereals, oilseeds, pulses, and rice during the kharif season aligns with better southwest monsoons.
• Excessive rain adversely affects maize and oilseed yields.
• The timing of the monsoon is crucial; deficient rain in June and July harms crops like maize, pulses, and soybeans by delaying sowing and affecting growth.
• Excess rain during the harvest season reduces oilseed yields.
• Last year's favorable monsoons and normal winter conditions led to increased kharif and rabi production by 7.9% and 6%, respectively.

Climate Change and Long-Term Impact

• Climate change-induced variability is expected to have a significant long-term impact on agriculture.
• In 2024, India faced extreme weather on 322 days, affecting 4.07 million hectares of crops.
• Heatwaves and floods from erratic rain are increasing, with over 250 days recorded last year.
• Climate change is causing reduced crop yields and nutritional value.

Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

• Adoption of climate-resilient agricultural practices, improved drainage, and flood/drought management are vital.
• Smart technology use can enhance efficiency and sustainability in agriculture.
• Long-term water management and natural farming, distinct from organic farming, should be encouraged for soil regeneration.
• Overall strategies for climate mitigation and adaptation are essential for sustainable agricultural practices in India.