Monsoon Forecast and Economic Impact

The India Meteorological Department has forecasted an above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall for 2025, with an estimated 5% above the normal level. This prediction follows a favourable monsoon in 2024, which had 7.6% more rain than the long-period average (LPA).

Climatic Conditions

• The forecast is supported by Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions and atmospheric conditions akin to La Nina.
• Strong monsoon circulation is expected over the subcontinent.
• Bihar, Tamil Nadu, and parts of the Northeast are expected to have below-normal rainfall.

Agricultural Impact

• Despite good irrigation, monsoon precipitation remains critical for agriculture.
• GDP growth in agriculture and allied activities is anticipated to rise to 4.4% in 2024-25 from 2.7% in 2023-24.
• Kharif and rabi food grain production increased by 7.9% and 6% respectively due to surplus rain in the previous year.

Challenges and Climate Change

• India faced extreme weather on 322 of 365 days in 2024, highlighting increasing climate challenges.
• Climate change could reduce the GDP by 2% and affect living standards by 2050.

Policy Recommendations

• Utilize a favourable monsoon to replenish water reservoirs.
• Focus on water conservation and sustainable agricultural practices.