India's Economic Vision for 2047
Chief Economic Advisor, V Anantha Nageswaran, emphasizes the need for India to create at least 8 million jobs annually for the next 10-12 years and boost the manufacturing sector's GDP contribution to achieve the vision of a developed country by 2047.
Challenges and Strategies
- India must adapt to a less favorable external environment compared to the past three decades.
- The rise of artificial intelligence, technology, and robotics presents complex challenges, potentially threatening entry-level and low IT-enabled service jobs.
- Balancing labour-centric policies with technological advancements is crucial for policymakers.
Global Integration and SME Development
- Integrating Indian businesses into global value chains and developing a viable small and medium enterprise (SME) sector are essential for becoming a manufacturing powerhouse.
- Investment rates must rise, or existing investments must be optimized, as global capital flows face disruptions due to international conflicts.
Export Competitiveness and Growth Rates
- India's export competitiveness remains vital but may not contribute as significantly to GDP growth as before, dropping from 40% in the first decade of the century to potentially lower in the coming years.
- Focus on improving quality, R&D, logistics, and last-mile connectivity is necessary to enhance export competitiveness.
- Maintaining a 6.5% growth rate sustainably, with potential increases through domestic deregulation, is recommended.
Current Economic Growth and Future Predictions
- India's growth averaged over 8% in the past three years post-COVID.
- UNCTAD forecasts a 6.5% growth rate for India by 2025, bolstered by strong public spending and monetary easing.
In summary, India faces significant challenges in a challenging global environment but can maintain its growth advantage through strategic policy determination and prioritizing deregulation.
