Retaliation to Pahalgam Terror Attack
In response to the Pahalgam terror attack, India has decided to hold the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 (IWT) "in abeyance" and announced additional diplomatic measures. Pakistan, in turn, has threatened to hold all bilateral agreements, including the Simla Agreement, in abeyance. Such actions can have significant ramifications, though the immediate impact on IWT and the Simla Agreement may be limited.
Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)
- The treaty regulates water distribution between India and Pakistan.
- India has communicated the decision to hold it "in abeyance," citing changes such as altered demographics, the need for clean energy, and Pakistan's lack of good faith.
- The IWT cannot be altered unilaterally, as per Article XII, and requires a ratified bilateral treaty for modification.
- India argues "fundamental changes in circumstances" but such terms are not recognized in international law under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties of 1969 (VCLT).
International Law and Dispute Resolution
The term "hold in abeyance" is not recognized in international law. The VCLT allows for treaty termination or suspension under certain conditions, but the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has set a high bar for "fundamental changes."
- The IWT includes a three-tier dispute resolution mechanism.
- First tier: Permanent Indus Commission.
- Second tier: Neutral expert appointed by the World Bank.
- Third tier: Permanent Court of Arbitration (PAC).
- India previously refused to participate in PAC proceedings, arguing against parallel proceedings.
Simla Agreement and the Line of Control (LoC)
The Simla Agreement, signed in 1972, deals with bilateral relations and recognizes the LoC as the de facto border. It includes "best endeavour clauses" rather than legally binding obligations.
- Pakistan has violated the agreement multiple times, including during the Kargil conflict in 1999.
- India's abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 has been viewed by Pakistan as a violation.
- The agreement lacks a dispute resolution process, and its suspension implies non-recognition of the LoC by Pakistan.
