Deterrence Fragility in South Asia

The recent hostilities between India and Pakistan highlight the fragile state of deterrence in South Asia. While familiar triggers like cross-border provocations exist, the broader strategic context has evolved significantly.

Key Players and Dynamics

• United States: Resumed its crisis manager role, reviving India-Pakistan hyphenation, which New Delhi opposes.
• China: Increasing influence in Pakistan’s military, transforming the conflict into a strategic triangle involving India, Pakistan, and China.

India's Response and Strategic Concerns

• India's retaliatory actions demonstrate a shift from passive restraint to active deterrence, strengthening its domestic and international stance.
• Each military engagement risks drawing India back into regional conflicts, conflicting with its global aspirations.
• India seeks to maintain a global identity, avoiding frameworks that equate it with Pakistan.

Diplomatic Approaches and Challenges

• The reappearance of India-Pakistan equivalence in global discourse is seen as a diplomatic setback for India.
• India aims to distinguish itself as a rules-based state against a revisionist actor (Pakistan).
• Despite strong strategic ties with the US, India finds these do not always yield control over narratives during crises.

Pakistan’s Strategic Position

• Pakistan uses US involvement to gain parity recognition in disputes with India.
• India must focus on broadening bilateral ties with key partners beyond crises.

Indus Waters Treaty and Regional Implications

• India considers revisiting the Indus Waters Treaty to apply pressure without immediate disruption.
• Such actions have significant symbolic and regional implications, inviting international scrutiny.

China’s Role and Military Alignment

• China acts as both a diplomatic and material enabler for Pakistan.
• Pakistan’s military capabilities are significantly enhanced by Chinese equipment and support, challenging India’s traditional air superiority.

Strategic Challenges and Future Directions

• The risk exists of episodic conflicts becoming the norm, undermining regional stability and India's strategic ambitions.
• India must innovate doctrinally and control the narrative to shift the conflict paradigm.
• International perceptions often default to viewing South Asian crises as requiring bilateral mediation, affecting India’s Indo-Pacific stabilizing role.

Conclusion

India faces a new strategic reality where crises are triangular, involving multiple stakeholders and complex narratives. Its challenge is to respond effectively while maintaining its position as a stabilizing global power, not confined by regional volatility.