Unseasonal Weather Patterns in May
This May has been characterized by unusually wet weather, with India recording 68.4% more rainfall than the average for this month. Additionally, there have been no reports of record-breaking temperatures or significant heatwaves affecting large parts of the country.
Factors Contributing to Weather Conditions
- Intermittent showers have been a result of:
- Western disturbance winds bringing moisture from the Mediterranean Sea.
- Similar moisture incursions from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
- The cumulative precipitation for the pre-monsoon season (March 1 to May 23) is 16.8% above the long-period average.
- Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, 27 have reported 20% or more surplus rain.
Impact on Temperatures
- Each thunderstorm has managed to lower temperatures, mitigating the building heat conditions.
- This has resulted in a relatively bearable summer so far.
Monsoon Forecast and Influencing Factors
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal rainfall for the monsoon season (June-September).
- Two major ocean indicators influencing the monsoon are favorable:
- No El Niño is expected this time.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted to remain in a “neutral” state.
- The monsoon also relies on the formation of heat lows over northwest India, which are crucial for drawing in moist air.
Economic Implications
- A good monsoon is essential for an economy recovering from high food inflation experienced between July 2023 and December 2024.
- Positive indicators include:
- Consumer food price inflation dropping to a 42-month low of 1.8% in April.
- Wheat stocks reaching a four-year high in government warehouses as of May 1.
- Despite easing international food and commodity prices, the monsoon's performance remains crucial.
- Policymakers and economic agents are advised to prepare for possible variations in rainfall quantity, distribution, and timing over the upcoming four-month monsoon season.
