Monsoon Situation in India
The coming week is critical for the revival of the southwest monsoon, which initially arrived prematurely but has since stalled. The monsoon was expected over Kerala on May 24, eight days earlier than the usual June 1 date, and advanced over Mumbai by May 26, 16 days in advance. However, it has not progressed beyond its northern limit since May 29.
Current Weather Anomalies
- May recorded nearly 2.1 times the historical normal rainfall.
- Average maximum temperatures in May were 1.5 degrees Celsius below normal across India.
- Rainfall this month has been 31% below normal with 30 of 36 meteorological subdivisions experiencing deficits over 15%.
Monsoon Forecast and Influencing Factors
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates the monsoon to reach Gujarat, West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar shortly, and forecasts an "above-normal" monsoon provided the absence of El Niño and the development of neutral or weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions.
- Both ocean indicators, which significantly impact the monsoon, are currently favorable.
- A concern is the lack of heat-induced low-pressure areas due to unexpected summer rains in May that affected normal heating patterns.
Agricultural Implications
The monsoon revival is crucial for the timely sowing of kharif crops, which depend on both the volume and the distribution—temporal and spatial—of rainfall.
Economic Implications
- Consumer food price inflation dropped to below 1% in May, hitting a 43-month low due to a bumper rabi crop.
- Government wheat stocks reached 38 million tonnes on June 1, indicating a four-year high and exceeding the required levels for rice.
- The US Department of Agriculture predicts record global grain and oilseed harvests for 2025-26, which could mitigate potential inflation if the monsoon does not match IMD forecasts.
Policy Recommendations
Given past climate and geopolitical disruptions, policymakers are advised not to assume commodity prices will remain stable. The Narendra Modi government is encouraged to keep import options open to manage any potential shortfall in resources.
