India-U.S. Relations: A Critical Analysis

Current Strategic Situation

Recent interactions between India and the United States had suggested a promising partnership. However, recent developments have introduced tensions and uncertainties into this relationship.

• India and the U.S. were seen as aligning on shared democratic values and geopolitical interests.
• The relationship now faces challenges due to policy incoherence and a return to outdated diplomatic frameworks.

Factors Contributing to the Drift

• The perception of short-term transactional gains by the Trump administration over long-term strategic alignment.
• Return to “hyphenation” — equating India and Pakistan as equal strategic concerns.
• Economic signals undermining India’s role in global manufacturing, notably discouraging companies like Apple from expanding in India.
• Immigration policies affecting the H-1B visa regime, crucial for technological cooperation between India and the U.S.
• Washington’s warming relations with Pakistan, described as a "phenomenal partner" in counterterrorism.

Challenges in Partnership

• India’s strategic culture, which prioritizes a patient and civilizational approach, contrasts with the U.S.'s preference for quick deals.
• The U.S. security establishment's nostalgia for Pakistan, despite its history of contributing to cross-border terrorism.
• Structural asymmetries in influence, leading to misunderstandings of India’s strategic intentions.

Path Forward for India

• Maintain strategic alignment despite tactical irritants and pursue quiet, persistent diplomacy.
• Deepen engagement in U.S. circles beyond traditional diplomacy, leveraging Congress and Indian American diaspora.
• Accelerate internal economic reforms to reinforce investment and manufacturing logic.
• Reframe immigration concerns as shared opportunities, particularly in tech and innovation sectors.

Steps the U.S. Should Take

• Abandon Cold War frameworks and recognize Indian manufacturing and talent mobility as assets.
• Invest in India’s regional capacity-building initiatives as part of the Indo-Pacific strategy.
• Rediscover the moral purpose of the partnership, focusing on democratic and rules-based world order.

Historical Context and Future Outlook

• The India-U.S. relationship has experienced nonlinear growth, illustrated by the 2005 civil nuclear agreement.
• The current turbulence should prompt renewal and deeper engagement rather than signaling an end to the partnership.
• Both nations must reaffirm their commitment to building a democratic concert in Asia.