US Air Strike on Iran's Nuclear Facilities

Over the weekend, the United States (US) Air Force conducted air strikes on three significant sites in Iran associated with its nuclear weapons programme. These sites are located in Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan, and are deeply buried underground, making them difficult to target with conventional munitions.

Background and Context

• The installations were believed to be beyond the reach of Israel’s air strikes conducted the previous week, due to their deep underground location.
• The US employed GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, also known as "bunker-buster" bombs, capable of reaching depths of at least 60 meters.
• There was speculation regarding US President Donald Trump's decision to proceed with the strikes, citing his campaign promise against new wars and his stance on Iran.

Objective and Outcome

• The goal was to hinder Iran's nuclear programme, possibly setting it back by a decade.
• However, the effectiveness of the strikes is uncertain, as the targeted enriched uranium and production capability might have been moved to other locations.
• Creating a nuclear warhead and the capacity to deliver it via missile are distinct challenges, with no independent verification of Iran’s progress being available.

International Implications

• The US’s unilateral action raises concerns about acting without consultations or restrictions, particularly with European allies.
• This action may undermine global nuclear non-proliferation efforts, suggesting that countries without nuclear weapons face greater threats.
• The strikes could ironically incentivize more countries to pursue nuclear capabilities for security against nuclear-armed adversaries.
• President Trump's decision might result in Iran intensifying its nuclear efforts, potentially leading other nations to follow suit.