Overview of the Rules-Based International Order

The international order, often termed "Pax Americana," emerged post-World War II through U.S.-led governance institutions. Its goal was to stabilize and rebuild the global economy, particularly war-torn Europe, through initiatives like the Marshall Plan.

Key Institutions

• World Trade Organisation (WTO)
• International Monetary Fund (IMF)
• World Bank
• The "Washington Consensus"

These institutions were designed to maintain international political guardrails and limit regional ambitions threatening the unipolar power balance.

U.S. Influence and Flexibility

• The U.S. historically used coercive tactics, such as pressuring Japan in 1955 to limit textile exports, to shape Asian economies.
• Despite this, the U.S. promoted openness, allowing Asian and Latin American economies to assert themselves within the system.
• Examples include:
  1. Encouraging developing countries to join the United Nations institutions.
  2. Facilitating China's WTO membership in 2001.
  3. Supporting Japan's G-7 entry in 1973.
  4. Backing major economies like China, India, and Indonesia in the G20.

Challenges and Transformations

The system isn't solely a product of U.S. authority but also reflects the autonomous growth of Asian economies. This is driven by global trade systems, social advancements, and regional collaborations.

Impact of the current US leadership

Under the current leadership tenure, the rules-based order risked transforming due to:

• Strains on NATO are weakening Europe's security.
• Aligning with contentious Israeli policies affecting Middle Eastern dynamics.
• Influences on global student migration and visa policies.
• These shifts signal a potential evolution into Flux Americana.

Emerging New Order

• Likely rise of bilateral agreements over regional ones.
• Increased economic sanctions against political adversaries, challenging WTO norms.
• Proliferation of minor conflicts and reliance on technology like drones and AI for disputes.
• Weakening of global institutions focused on cooperation and human rights.

While the legacy of the old order will influence new arrangements, a distinct transformation is evident.