Political Upheavals in India's Neighbourhood

Overview of Recent Political Movements

In the past three years, significant political upheavals have occurred in three of India's neighboring countries: Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal. These movements have resulted in the removal of sitting leaders amid mass protests driven by economic, social, and political grievances.

Sri Lanka: Economic Collapse and Mass Uprising (2022)

• Sri Lanka faced an economic crisis with depleted foreign reserves, stalled imports, and shortages of essentials like fuel and medicine.
• The crisis led to the "Aragalaya" movement, with tens of thousands protesting and demanding political change.
• Protesters eventually forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee and resign, ending the dominance of the Rajapaksa family.
• Subsequent emergency negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were initiated, although social and political trust deficits persisted.

Bangladesh: Student Uprising and End of a Long Rule (2024)

• Protests began in July 2024 over job quotas for government employment, escalating into wider anti-government movements.
• Student-led marches were supported by workers and opposition groups, leading to violent clashes with security forces.
• By August 2024, Sheikh Hasina had left the country, and an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took charge.

Nepal: Gen Z, Social Media Ban, and National Crisis (2025)

• Protests erupted over a government move to restrict social media platforms, sparking wider unrest over corruption and governance issues.
• Clashes between security forces and demonstrators resulted in at least 19 deaths, marking the most violent episodes in decades.
• Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned within 36 hours of the protests.

Common Threads Behind the Protests

• Proximate Trigger and Deeper Grievances: Specific policies or events (economic collapse, job quotas, social media ban) triggered widespread mobilization, highlighting longstanding discontent.
• Youth and Student Mobilization: Young citizens led the protests, utilizing networks and public spaces to rapidly scale the movements.
• Role of Communications: Social media played a dual role by organizing protests and intensifying them when restricted.
• State Response and Legitimacy: Heavy-handed security responses and elite privileges weakened state legitimacy, intensifying public outrage.

Implications for India and the Region

• Stability and Markets: Political shocks in neighboring countries can impact regional markets, investor sentiment, and trade routes.
• Cross-Border Flows: Mass protests may lead to refugee flows, closed border crossings, and disruptions in remittances and supply chains.