Political Upheavals in India's Neighbourhood
Overview of Recent Political Movements
In the past three years, significant political upheavals have occurred in three of India's neighboring countries: Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal. These movements have resulted in the removal of sitting leaders amid mass protests driven by economic, social, and political grievances.
Sri Lanka: Economic Collapse and Mass Uprising (2022)
- Sri Lanka faced an economic crisis with depleted foreign reserves, stalled imports, and shortages of essentials like fuel and medicine.
- The crisis led to the "Aragalaya" movement, with tens of thousands protesting and demanding political change.
- Protesters eventually forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee and resign, ending the dominance of the Rajapaksa family.
- Subsequent emergency negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were initiated, although social and political trust deficits persisted.
Bangladesh: Student Uprising and End of a Long Rule (2024)
- Protests began in July 2024 over job quotas for government employment, escalating into wider anti-government movements.
- Student-led marches were supported by workers and opposition groups, leading to violent clashes with security forces.
- By August 2024, Sheikh Hasina had left the country, and an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took charge.
Nepal: Gen Z, Social Media Ban, and National Crisis (2025)
- Protests erupted over a government move to restrict social media platforms, sparking wider unrest over corruption and governance issues.
- Clashes between security forces and demonstrators resulted in at least 19 deaths, marking the most violent episodes in decades.
- Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned within 36 hours of the protests.
Common Threads Behind the Protests
- Proximate Trigger and Deeper Grievances: Specific policies or events (economic collapse, job quotas, social media ban) triggered widespread mobilization, highlighting longstanding discontent.
- Youth and Student Mobilization: Young citizens led the protests, utilizing networks and public spaces to rapidly scale the movements.
- Role of Communications: Social media played a dual role by organizing protests and intensifying them when restricted.
- State Response and Legitimacy: Heavy-handed security responses and elite privileges weakened state legitimacy, intensifying public outrage.
Implications for India and the Region
- Stability and Markets: Political shocks in neighboring countries can impact regional markets, investor sentiment, and trade routes.
- Cross-Border Flows: Mass protests may lead to refugee flows, closed border crossings, and disruptions in remittances and supply chains.