Core Research Focus
The primary concern is avoiding a Great Power war, specifically examining the risk of war between the United States and China, and also the US and Russia. The emphasis is on promoting peace over conflict.
US-China Relations Under Trump
- Trump's comment on Beijing as ‘deepest, darkest China’ reflects his concern over China's diplomatic moves and alliances, particularly with Russia and India.
- Despite his comments, Trump is not conventionally hawkish on China, often expressing respect for Xi Jinping.
The Thucydides Trap
- The concept originates from Thucydides, noting that a rising power threatens a ruling power, often leading to catastrophic war.
- Historical examples: Athens vs. Sparta, and Germany vs. Britain before WWII.
- The current dynamic: The US as a ruling power and China as a rising power.
- Possible outcomes: Not inevitable war, but there is a significant risk. Out of 16 historical rivalries, 12 led to war, 4 did not.
- Cold War Strategy: The US and Soviet Union managed tension through Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) rather than open war, applicable today with US-China relations.
Impact of Trump's Foreign Policy
- Trump views alliances as liabilities, contrasting with post-WWII US foreign policy which valued alliances like NATO in Europe and partnerships with Japan, South Korea, and Australia in Asia.
- This approach raises questions about the stability of the international security order established post-WWII.
China's Dominance in Renewable Energy
- China leads in renewable energy technology, particularly in solar, wind, water, and nuclear energy.
- This dominance provides leverage for China globally and presents positive impacts on global environmental issues.
Lessons for India from China's Rise
- China's economic transformation showcases possibilities for dramatic economic growth, which India is currently experiencing at a higher rate than China.
- India can learn from China's poverty reduction, youth education, and infrastructure development.
- However, cultural differences exist, with India placing higher value on personal freedoms.
- India is noted for being proactive in learning from other successful states, including Singapore.
