India-China Relations: Recent Developments and Strategic Perspectives
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to China involved attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit and bilateral talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Key outcomes included the resumption of bilateral trade, air connectivity, and emphasizing peace along the border, noteworthy after the Galwan Valley clashes five years ago.
Context of India-China Relations
- Historical Context:
- In 1988, India and China decided to normalize relations in other sectors while addressing border issues. Maintaining peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) was crucial.
- The 2020 Galwan incident highlighted China's aggressive stance, disrupting previous agreements.
- Recent Developments:
- Both countries have been making diplomatic and military efforts to restore pre-2020 conditions, including the 2024 Border Patrol Agreement which was seen as a diplomatic success for India.
- India demands the restoration of patrol rights in disputed areas, a sentiment acknowledged by Indian strategists.
Potential Future Disruptions
- Possible Galwan-like incidents could severely disrupt relations.
- While historical ties with Pakistan were significant for India, China is recognized as the main threat now due to its ambitions for global primacy.
- Chinese military infrastructure development in the Tibetan Plateau prompts India to enhance its LAC security.
Theories Behind China’s Actions
- Several theories exist regarding China's actions in Galwan, including:
- The dilution of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir.
- Economic competition with India, especially during the China-U.S. trade war.
- China perceives India as a potential competitor due to India's economic growth and demographic advantage.
Strategic Outlook and South Asia
- China's evolving engagement in South Asia, including trilateral mechanisms with Pakistan and Bangladesh, indicates its strategic approach.
- India and China maintain cards against each other, yet workable ties benefit both nations economically, considering China’s manufacturing dominance.
Overall, India-China relationships are complex, influenced by historical context, recent developments, and strategic considerations in South Asia. Maintaining peace and addressing economic interdependencies are crucial for both nations.
