President Vladimir Putin’s Visit to India

President Vladimir Putin's visit marks his first in four years amid ongoing peace efforts in Ukraine. The visit presents India with a critical opportunity to reinvigorate its relationship with Russia, which, despite being considered a long-standing ally, has not reached its full potential.

Current State of Indo-Russian Relations

• The ties have largely descended to limited government-to-government interactions, lacking enthusiasm among India's new elites or its vibrant private sector.
• Russia's prominence in Indian public life is a mere shadow of its Soviet-era influence.
• In Russia, India holds a marginal position compared to the focus on the US, Europe, and China.
• The relationship persists mainly due to Putin’s personal commitment rather than a structural interest from Russia.

Potential Areas for Reinvigoration

Rejuvenating the relationship should not solely focus on defense deals or short-term benefits like discounted oil. A sustainable transformation requires:

• Building a significant commercial, technological, and scientific partnership.
• Enhancing economic ties, as India’s exports to Russia are a mere $5 billion annually, compared to $11 billion to Bangladesh.
• Positioning India to participate in potential economic expansions if peace in Ukraine leads to Russian economic recovery and large-scale reconstruction in Ukraine.

Global Diplomatic Context

• The ongoing Ukraine conflict has highlighted the limits of the West's ability to defeat Russia near its borders, as seen in President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's shift in peace demands.
• Russia seeks accommodation with the West, aiming for a place at the G8 and a role in shaping the European order.
• American delegations, including envoys from President Donald Trump, are engaging in peace negotiations and exploring economic opportunities in Russia and Ukraine.

Impact on India’s Foreign Policy

• The Ukraine war challenged India’s multi-alignment doctrine, affecting its commercial ties with the US and Europe.
• India's increased oil imports from Russia and its non-condemnation of Russia's actions have caused friction with Western powers.
• While President Joe Biden refrained from making India’s Russia ties a breaking point, President Trump imposed tariffs on Indian exports over Russian oil purchases.
• Europe, though disturbed by India’s stance, has not imposed punitive measures, but seeks peace for deeper ties with India.

Strategic Opportunities and Challenges

• Europe faces the dual anxiety of Russian threats and potential US abandonment, necessitating strategic autonomy and engagement with Moscow.
• The Ukraine negotiations offer a chance to restructure US, Europe, and Russia relations, with India needing to strengthen ties with all three.
• India must expand its Russia partnership beyond defense and nuclear cooperation to include trade, technology, and scientific collaboration.

Conclusion

Putin’s visit provides an opportunity to reset Indo-Russian relations on a broader and more modern basis, building on opportunities missed since Putin's first visit to India in 2000.