Study on Global Glacier Disappearance Due to Climate Change

A new study highlights the potential loss of glaciers worldwide due to global warming, emphasizing the need for urgent climate policy actions.

Key Findings

• The study predicts that thousands of glaciers will vanish annually unless significant measures are taken to curb global warming.
• Government interventions could determine if 2,000 or 4,000 glaciers are lost each year by mid-century.
• A difference of a few degrees in global temperature could determine whether almost half or less than 10% of the world's glaciers remain by 2100.

Impact of Glacier Loss

• Even though smaller glaciers contribute less to sea-level rise, their disappearance can severely affect local tourism and culture.
• Each lost glacier can have significant local impacts despite its small meltwater contribution.

Study Methodology

• Researchers analyzed satellite-derived outlines of 211,490 glaciers to identify when the largest number will disappear, termed as "peak glacier extinction."
• Glacier computer models were employed under various warming scenarios ranging from a 1.5°C to a 4°C rise in temperatures from pre-industrial levels.

Projected Scenarios

• Currently, approximately 1,000 glaciers are lost annually, with this rate expected to peak at 2,000 by 2041 under a 1.5°C warming scenario.
• In a scenario with a 2.7°C temperature rise, around 3,000 glaciers will disappear each year between 2040 and 2060, leaving only 43,852 glaciers by 2100.
• Under the worst-case 4°C scenario, up to 4,000 glaciers could vanish yearly by the mid-2050s, leaving just 18,288 glaciers by the century's end.

Regional Differences

• Regions with smaller glaciers, like the European Alps and subtropical Andes, could lose half of their glaciers within two decades.
• Larger glacier regions, such as Greenland and the Antarctic periphery, will experience peak glacier loss later in the century.

Conclusion

• The pace of glacier disappearance will eventually decline as fewer glaciers remain, with larger glaciers taking longer to melt.
• In areas like the Alps, the rate of loss will approach zero by the century's end due to the near-total disappearance of glaciers.