Myanmar's 2023 Elections and Political Turmoil
The recent elections in Myanmar are emblematic of a subversion of electoral democracy, where popular will is undermined by authoritarian imposition.
Background and Context
- The elections are being conducted by the junta nearly five years after it overthrew a democratically elected government, igniting a civil war.
- The elections are happening in three phases:
- First phase: 102 townships.
- Second phase: January 11, 2024, in 100 townships.
- Third phase: January 25, 2024, in 63 townships.
- Majority of major political parties from the 2020 elections, including the National League for Democracy (NLD), are not participating.
- The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), consisting mainly of former junta members, is the main contestant.
Current Political Climate
- The junta controls less than half the country's townships, with some areas not participating in the elections due to ongoing conflict.
- Ethnic armed organizations and People’s Defence Forces (PDF), linked to the opposition National Unity Government, have control over significant territories.
- In late 2023, the Three Brotherhood Alliance (TBA) made significant advances in Shan State and Rakhine, affecting junta control.
International Influence and Control
- The junta is supported with weaponry from Russia and Belarus.
- China's strategic interests led to a shift in its stance, pressuring TBA to return control to the junta, affecting the balance of power.
Current Situation and Prognosis
- Despite some territorial gains, the junta only maintains nominal control over several regions including Rakhine and Sagaing.
- Participation in elections appears significantly lower compared to the 2020 elections.
- The military retains a 25% quota of legislative seats, preserving its dominance regardless of election outcomes.
- Only China, Russia, and Belarus endorse these elections, suggesting a lack of broader international legitimacy.
The current electoral scenario is unlikely to foster popular support, and Myanmar seems poised for continued conflict.
