Geopolitical Turmoil and U.S. Actions
The new year continues to reflect the geopolitical upheavals initiated by the Trump administration. Significant actions include:
- The U.S.'s unlawful intervention in Venezuela.
- Threats to instigate regime changes in South America.
- Plans to annex Greenland.
U.S. Legislative and Sanction Measures
Upcoming U.S. legislative discussions and sanctions include:
- A proposed law that may impose tariffs up to 500% on nations buying oil or uranium from Russia.
- Increased sanctions and rhetoric against Iran due to their crackdown on protesters.
- A proposed additional 25% tariff on trade with countries engaging in business with Iran.
Impact on India
The U.S. pressure influences India's strategies, as seen in the following ways:
- India is urged to cease operations at the Chabahar port, despite its significant investments.
India’s Response and Strategic Considerations
India's reaction to these global pressures appears muted and strategic:
- The Ministry of External Affairs expressed "deep concern" about Venezuela but avoided condemning the U.S.'s actions.
- No statements were made regarding threats to Cuba and Colombia, as they do not directly impact India.
India’s Position on Iran
India's stance on Iran is notably cautious:
- A lack of public comment on Iran’s protests or the U.S.'s threats.
- Issuance of travel advisories for Iran and Israel and preparation of evacuation plans for Indian nationals in Iran.
- Plans to further reduce trade with Iran.
Strategic Autonomy and Bilateral Relations
The Indian government's approach appears to prioritize strategic relations with the U.S., despite past experiences:
- Anticipation of improved India-U.S. ties through agreements like the Bilateral Trade Agreement and the high-technology partnership 'Pax Silica'.
- Recognition that appeasement of global powers does not guarantee national interest protection; asserting strategic autonomy is crucial.
Conclusion
India faces potential economic and reputational risks amid these geopolitical tensions, particularly as it aims to host the BRICS+ Summit. The experience from 2019 highlights the need for India to assert its strategic autonomy rather than yield to external pressures.
