China's Demographic Decline
China faces a significant demographic challenge as its population continues to decline for the fourth consecutive year in 2025. This is a growing concern for President Xi Jinping and Chinese policymakers, as various policy shifts and incentives to boost birth rates have not yielded positive results.
Population Statistics
- In 2025, China's population fell by 3.39 million to approximately 1.4 billion.
- The decline began in 2022, with a marked decrease in births and a rise in deaths.
Birth and Fertility Rates
- China recorded 7.92 million births in 2025, a 17% decline from 2024's 9.54 million.
- The birth rate was 5.63 per 1,000 people, the lowest since 1949.
- Fertility rate stands at around one child per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1.
Mortality Rates and Population Balance
- Deaths in 2025 were 11.31 million, with a death rate of 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest since 1968.
- Net population decline was 2.41 per 1,000 people.
Policy Measures
- China replaced the one-child policy with a two-child limit in 2016, then increased it to three in 2021.
- Introduced childcare subsidies, waived public kindergarten fees, and offered extended maternity leave.
- Implemented a 13% value-added tax on contraceptives.
- Promoted a "new culture of marriage and childbearing".
Challenges in Childbearing
- Child-raising costs in China are among the highest globally, deterring young couples.
- Youth unemployment reached 18.9% in August 2024, with many facing long working hours.
- Marriage rates are low, with many facing the pressure of caring for ageing parents.
Economic and Future Implications
- Population shrinkage affects labour supply and consumer demand.
- China's economy grew by 5% in 2025, but largely due to exports.
- An ageing population could reach 400 million by 2035, stressing the pension system.
- United Nations projects China's population may fall to 800 million by 2100.
Overall, China's demographic decline poses a serious crisis, with limited policy options remaining to reverse the trend.
