Demographic Transition in Indian States
India's demographic landscape is experiencing a significant but uneven transition across its States, which is highlighted in a new RBI report.
Ageing States
- Kerala and Tamil Nadu: Predicted to become "ageing States" by 2036 with elderly populations exceeding 22% and 20%, respectively.
- Fiscal Advice: The RBI suggests rationalizing subsidies to manage rising pension costs.
Youthful States
- Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand: These States will see a rise in working-age populations beyond 2031.
- Investment Advice: The RBI recommends heavy investments in human capital.
Middle Ground States
- Karnataka and Maharashtra: Balancing growth with the onset of ageing pressures.
Challenges and Opportunities
- Political Undertones: Southern States face challenges due to lower Central tax devolution and parliamentary representation.
- Employability Issues: Youthful States need to address stagnating or declining education spending.
- Economic Evolution: Manufacturing automation and AI pose risks of ageing before achieving wealth.
Gender Impact and Family Dynamics
- Women and Ageing: Impact on women who live longer with fewer financial assets.
- Family Support Assumptions: Migration and nuclear families contribute to collapsing informal safety nets.
Strategic Recommendations
- New Industrial Policy: Need for job creation in sectors like green energy and the care economy.
- Healthcare and Pension Services: Youthful States must build these services to avoid future fiscal shocks.
- Social Pensions Expansion: Vital for preventing financial dependency among the elderly.
- Public Geriatric Care: Necessary to make "graceful ageing" accessible beyond the wealthy.
