US-Russia Nuclear Arms Control
The decision by the Trump Administration to allow the last nuclear arms-control treaty with Russia to lapse is a significant shift in how nuclear weapons are managed globally.
Historical Context
- Traditional Approach: Since the 1950s, the US has relied on legally binding treaties, including verification processes, to ensure global stability and security.
- Trump's Policy: This breaks from tradition by emphasizing:
- Unconstrained deterrence
- Unilateral technological advantage
- Flexible force postures
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)
- Key Provisions: Capped US and Russian arsenals at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 700 delivery systems supported by data exchanges and inspections.
- Current Status: With the treaty's lapse, these limits and verification mechanisms have disappeared.
Implications of Treaty Lapse
- Impact on Global Powers:
- For Russia, treaties symbolized parity with the US despite economic and technological asymmetries.
- The US aims for stable relations with Russia but not through traditional treaties.
- Analyst Warnings:
- The lack of formal arms control could lead to an arms race.
- Novel systems like hypersonic vehicles and dual-capable missiles pose new threats.
Global Ripple Effects
- Concerning Developments:
- Vulnerable states may pursue nuclear options without constraints.
- Efforts to include China in future agreements are unlikely to succeed.
- Regional Impacts:
- Europe may strengthen its own deterrents.
- Japan and South Korea face pressures to develop nuclear capabilities.
- India's Position:
- India must actively engage in establishing new norms and mechanisms in a nuclear multipolar world.
