Expiration of the 'New' Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)

The expiration of the 'New' START on February 5, 2026, marks a significant moment in global geopolitics.

Background and Importance

• The treaty symbolized a shift from the era of intense nuclear competition between the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
• It evolved from the arms control efforts aimed at reducing rather than limiting nuclear arsenals.

Historical Context

• During the Cold War, both superpowers amassed enormous arsenals, with over 10,000 strategic nuclear warheads each by the 1980s.
• Earlier efforts like the Strategic Arms Limitations Talks in the 1970s focused on capping numbers, not reducing them.

The START I Treaty

• Negotiations began in 1982 but the treaty was signed only in July 1991, shortly before the Soviet Union's collapse.
• It was the first agreement to reduce strategic nuclear arsenals, mandating cuts to 6,000 warheads and proportional reductions in delivery systems.
• This resulted in roughly a 30% reduction in warheads compared to previous agreements.

Subsequent Developments

• Later agreements further reduced deployable warheads to 1,700-2,200 per side.
• The New START Treaty (2010) limited each side to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads.

Future Implications

• The expiration of the New START calls for more ambitious future arms control measures.
• There is a potential resurgence of imperialist geopolitics and arms race doctrines.
• U.S. demands for future treaties to include China's growing nuclear capabilities highlight the complexity of future negotiations.

Global Consequences

• The end of START could affect global treaties like the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
• There is an opportunity to restart discussions on nuclear disarmament on more equitable terms.