Bangladesh Politics Overview

The recent political developments in Bangladesh saw the center-right Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Tarique Rahman winning the elections, defeating rivals led by the Jamaat-e-Islami. This was the first election since Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted in August 2024.

Election Results and Political Shift

• BNP seemed set to secure a two-thirds majority in the 300-member Parliament.
• Jamaat-e-Islami increased its share of seats from 18 in 1991 to over 60.

India's Response and Future Relations

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Tarique Rahman for the "decisive victory," indicating India's readiness to engage with the new government.
• India's historical ties with BNP date back to General Ziaur Rahman, Tarique Rahman’s father.

Background and Historical Context

Relations between India and Bangladesh have been complex, shaped by past political dynamics and security concerns. During Khaleda Zia's tenure, anti-India sentiments grew due to support for insurgent groups.

Post-2008 Developments

• Sheikh Hasina's government cracked down on terror groups, enhancing India-Bangladesh counter-terrorism cooperation.
• Hasina's actions against Jamaat and BNP were politically motivated, impacting bilateral ties.

BNP's Political Strategy

Tarique Rahman, after returning from exile, has adopted a conciliatory approach towards India:

• BNP's manifesto emphasizes "Bangladesh Before All," subtly referencing India, advocating non-interference in internal affairs.
• Jamaat’s manifesto calls for peaceful relations with neighboring countries, including India.

Challenges and Opportunities for India

• Extradition Issue: Handling Sheikh Hasina's stay in India and preventing provocative statements.
• Economic Relations: Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia, particularly in textiles and energy.
• Security Concerns: Ensuring no deterioration to previous BNP tenure conditions, maintaining open communication channels with Jamaat.
• Development Projects: Continuing connectivity projects linking Indian states with Bangladesh.
• People-to-People Ties: Facilitating Bangladeshi medical treatments and tourism in India via improved visa regimes.
• Migration Issues: Managing economic migration amicably, considering its political sensitivity in India.
• Religious Harmony: Curbing extremist and anti-minority elements within Bangladesh.
• Geopolitical Strategy: Preventing Bangladesh’s pivot towards Pakistan or China by reinforcing bilateral ties.

Conclusion

The recent political changes in Bangladesh offer both challenges and opportunities for India. Effective management of these dynamics could restore the golden period of bilateral relations that characterized Sheikh Hasina's tenure.