Potential US Military Action Against Iran

Recent developments indicate a rising likelihood of a renewed or larger military strike on Iran by the United States and Israeli forces. This follows a prior attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025. Key events have unfolded, increasing tensions in the region.

US Military Build-up

• The USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest warship ever built, is approaching Gibraltar and is expected to be stationed near Israel. It joins the USS Abraham Lincoln already in the area.
• Advanced air defense systems, including the Patriot and THAAD, have been moved to the region.
• Satellite images revealed that US forces in Qatar’s al-Udeid base positioned launchers for missiles to ease movement amid rising tensions.

Background and Triggers

• US President Donald Trump threatened Iran due to its crackdown on protests over inflation and economic issues in December 2025.
• Trump warned of military action if Iran "violently kills peaceful protesters," which led to Iran proposing negotiations.
• Previous negotiations were disrupted by attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities earlier in 2025, which had been prompted by Iran's economic deterioration due to Western sanctions.

Negotiations and Past Agreements

• In early February, the US and Iran agreed to negotiations. This was after previous indirect talks in April-May 2025 failed due to attacks.
• The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015, aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear program but was exited by the US in 2018.
• The US demands Iran halt ballistic missile development and cease support to regional non-state allies.

Potential Outcomes and Global Implications

• The possibility of an attack includes targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters.
• Potential outcomes range from a regime collapse to Iran retaliating against Israel.
• Any conflict could impact global oil prices, particularly with the strategic Strait of Hormuz involved.

Globally, the potential for conflict could significantly impact oil prices, with current prices already at a six-month high. The situation remains fluid, and the outcome of negotiations or military actions will be crucial in shaping future events.