The Islamic Republic of Iran's Survival Strategy
The Islamic Republic of Iran is focused on survival amidst the ongoing conflict with Israel and the United States. This survival objective has been central to Iran's strategy since the Islamic Republic's founding in 1979 and is integrated into the constitutional and institutional framework of the state.
Constitutional Imperatives and Institutional Design
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was established shortly after the 1979 revolution, with a mission distinct from the regular armed forces: to preserve the revolution and the political order.
- This structure ensures the primary loyalty of the IRGC to the regime rather than the nation-state, enabling the regime to endure various challenges, including protests, sanctions, proxy wars, and military assaults.
Leadership Succession and Institutional Continuity
- The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the Supreme Leader following the death of his predecessor illustrates the regime's focus on continuity and resilience.
- This decision was made rapidly and despite external pressures, showcasing the regime's prioritization of internal stability over external acceptance.
Iran’s Strategy and International Relations
- Israel's Perspective: Israel views the survival doctrine of Iran as a longstanding existential threat, advocating for regime change rather than merely managing the threat. Prime Minister Netanyahu has been vocal about the need to eliminate the Islamic Republic as a governing system.
- United States' Stance: The Trump administration's approach has been inconsistent, oscillating between regime change and negotiating a nuclear deal. This lack of coherence poses strategic challenges.
Iran's Tactical Responses
- Iran has strategically expanded the conflict by targeting multiple Gulf Cooperation Council states and disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to raise the war's costs for its adversaries.
- These actions reflect not a desperation but a calculated use of leverage accumulated over decades, in line with Iran's doctrine of survival.
Strategic Implications
- The central issue for the alliance between the United States and Israel is the divergence in their war aims: regime change versus nuclear disarmament.
- The Iranian regime's ability to exploit these strategic gaps underscores the importance of a coherent understanding of the adversary for an effective resolution.
A coherent strategy against Iran requires an accurate understanding of the adversary, something the current U.S. administration lacks according to the author. This asymmetry, rather than Iranian military capabilities, is a significant obstacle to resolving the conflict.
The author is an associate professor of International Studies at the Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies, Indiana University, and an expert on Iran’s political development and US-Iran relations.
