Impact of Climate Change on India's Forest Carbon Stocks

According to a study published in Environmental Research: Climate, India's forests could potentially store up to twice the current carbon levels by 2100, contingent on ongoing greenhouse gas emissions trends. This study draws on modeling efforts to forecast climate change's impact on forest carbon stocks, differing from official estimates by the Forest Survey of India (FSI).

Carbon Stock Projections

• Vegetation carbon biomass could rise by: 
  • 35% under low-emission scenarios
  • 62% under medium-emission scenarios
  • 97% under high-emission, fossil-fuel-intensive scenarios by 2100
• The most significant increases are projected post-2050.

Driving Forces

• Rising precipitation and elevated atmospheric CO₂ enhance photosynthesis and water-use efficiency.
• Rainfall effects manifest with a lag, affecting biomass accumulation over time.
• Human pressures and extreme weather events pose risks to forest stability and carbon storage.

Geographical Variations

• Largest increases anticipated in dry zones such as Rajasthan and Gujarat.
• Western Ghats and Himalayas to see smaller relative increases due to ecological saturation.

Challenges and Considerations

• The study highlights the absence of nutrient availability considerations, suggesting further modeling is needed.
• Climate change isn't uniformly beneficial; disruptive forces like deforestation and pests aren't fully accounted for.
• Future forest planning must be regional, climate-aware, and focus on risk prevention.

Official Estimates and Targets

• FSI reported a rise in forest carbon stock from 6.94 billion tonnes in 2013 to 7.29 billion tonnes in 2023.
• India's updated NDC aims for a forest carbon sink target of 3.5–4 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent by 2035.