US-Israeli Attack on Iran: Implications for India

The unexpected US-Israeli attack on Iran left New Delhi unprepared, yet the Indian government quickly formulated plans to manage the anticipated repercussions. The critical inquiry remains whether India could have responded more effectively if it had been better prepared for such an event.

Strategic Preparedness

• Energy Dependency: India's heavy reliance on energy makes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz a significant concern. 
• Cold War Strategies: During the Cold War, the US developed a "grand strategy" to counter communism, focusing on defining emerging scenarios before formulating strategies. 
  • Andrew Marshall's Role: Marshall's approach in the US Department of Defence involved ignoring unreliable data and predicting future economic scenarios, such as the decline of the USSR's economic power. 
  • China's Emergence: Marshall identified China’s economic rise early on and the potential threats it posed. 

US-China Relations

• Mutual Benefits: The opening of the US consumer market to China spurred its manufacturing growth, affecting US jobs and contributing to the rise of Donald Trump and tariff wars. 

India's Strategic Position

• Andrew Marshall's Outreach to India: From 2010, Marshall alerted India to China's rise and encouraged adopting strategic prediction practices. 
  • Military Acceptance: The Indian military established the Directorate of Net Assessment. 
  • Bureaucratic Resistance: Civil and foreign services largely ignored these techniques. 

Global Scenario-Writing Practices

• National Intelligence Council (NIC): Post-Cold War, NIC took over scenario-writing in Washington. 
• International Practices:
  • Germany and the UK engage in scenario studies.
  • Singapore's scenario planning is highly regarded.
  • China incorporates scenario planning in its five-year plans and military assessments.
• India's Current Status: Described as an "outlier," India has options for scenario writing through NITI Aayog and the National Security Council. 

Potential Scenarios for India

• Scenario 1: China's "grand strategy" aims for world dominance, challenging global governance institutions and economic balance. 
• Scenario 2: Persistent foreign capital outflows from India, leading to rupee devaluation, increased import costs, inflation, and reduced GDP growth. 

Author: Menon, a retired Rear Admiral, and author of "The Long View from Delhi."