Study on Tropical Atmospheric Waves and Extreme Rainfall
A collaborative study involving the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (Cusat), the UK Met Office, and France identifies significant links between tropical atmospheric waves and extreme rainfall on India's west coast.
Key Findings
- The study highlights Kelvin, Rossby, and Mixed Rossby-Gravity waves as major influencers of heavy rainfall by organizing deep convective cloud systems and enhancing moisture convergence over the Arabian Sea and the Western Ghats.
- Rossby waves notably amplify extreme rainfall over land by 20-60%.
- Recent catastrophic rainfall events such as the 2018 and 2019 floods in Kerala and the 2024 Wayanad landslides are linked to these wave activities.
Significance
- The research is the first comprehensive assessment of how these tropical waves modulate rainfall extremes in the region.
- Findings are crucial for Kerala, which has faced severe floods and landslides.
Implications for Forecasting and Disaster Management
- Potential to enhance early warning systems by monitoring tropical wave activity, which is more predictable than local thunderstorms.
- Improved forecasting models could provide lead time for anticipating heavy rainfall and mitigating disaster risks.
- Understanding atmospheric waves contributes to better preparedness as climate change intensifies hydrological cycles.
The study, part of a project funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, underscores the critical role of atmospheric science in disaster preparedness and climate change adaptation.
