Impact of Climate Change on the Indus River System
Key Findings from the Study
- Decline in Precipitation:
- The eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) experienced a 20% decline in precipitation from 1951 to 2024.
- The western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) saw a stable rainfall pattern with only a 6% reduction, which is considered statistically insignificant.
- Changes in Groundwater Levels:
- Significant depletion of groundwater in the Sutlej and Ravi sub-basins.
- The Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus basins have better groundwater situations, possibly due to less agricultural use, lower population density, or more recharge from snowmelt and precipitation.
- Reservoir Inflow Changes:
- Major reservoirs on the eastern rivers such as Pong, Bhakra, and Thein experienced a pronounced decline in annual inflow.
- Pong dam's inflow decreased by nearly 34% between 1951 and 2020.
- Reservoirs like Mangla and Tarbela in Pakistan were largely unaffected, showing stable flow patterns.
Implications for the Indus Waters Treaty
The study provides data-based evidence to support India's call for renegotiating the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, highlighting the significant alterations in water availability due to climate change.
- India's Position:
- India seeks a review and modification of the treaty due to population pressures, changes in water demand, the need for clean energy development, and climate-induced changes.
- India has put the treaty "in abeyance," pending Pakistan's action against cross-border terrorism.
- Pakistan's Response:
- No response to India's notices for treaty review and modification.
- Study's Conclusion:
- The treaty, designed under mid-20th-century conditions, faces sustainability challenges due to substantial hydro-climatic and geopolitical changes.
