India's Diplomatic Engagement with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan

India has initiated high-level engagement with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan amidst changing regional geopolitics, focusing on securing national and security interests without officially recognizing the Taliban government.

Key Factors Influencing India's Move

• Geopolitical Changes:
  • Pakistan, a former ally of the Taliban, has become an adversary to India.
  • Iran is preoccupied with internal and regional challenges, reducing its influence over the Taliban.
  • Russia is engaged in the Ukraine war and seeks Taliban cooperation against terrorism, shifting its focus away from opposing the Taliban.
  • China is increasing its influence in Afghanistan, potentially utilizing Taliban resources for its Belt and Road initiative.
  • Anticipation of Donald Trump's return to the White House prompts India to solidify its position.

Security Concerns

India's primary concern is ensuring that no anti-Indian terrorist groups operate from Afghanistan. The Taliban has provided assurances to secure Indian interests and facilities, including fighting the Islamic State Khorasan Province.

India's Diplomatic Efforts and Engagements

• Initial Engagement:
  • In August 2021, India began engagement with the Taliban following the collapse of the Ashraf Ghani government.
  • India's ambassador in Qatar met with representatives from the Taliban's Doha office.
• Continued Dialogue:
  • Indian officials, including J P Singh, have engaged with Taliban leaders to maintain dialogue.
  • A technical team was sent to the Indian embassy in Kabul to continue engagement.

Regional Dynamics

• Iran's Challenges:
  • Iran faces internal issues following attacks from Israel and the loss of regional proxies.
  • Despite opposition to Taliban policies, Iran acknowledges the regime's reality.
• Russia's Stance:
  • Russia views the Taliban as an ally against terrorism, shifting its previous opposition.
  • The Russian parliament considers removing the Taliban from its banned organizations list.
• China's Inroads:
  • China establishes diplomatic ties with the Taliban, focusing on Afghanistan's resources.
  • Beijing supports urban development projects in Kabul and calls for unfreezing Afghan assets.
• Pakistan's Strained Relations:
  • Pakistan's relationship with the Taliban becomes strained due to conflicts like the airstrikes in the Paktika province.
  • India condemns Pakistani actions against Afghan civilians.

India's Strategic Interests

India focuses on maintaining its investment and humanitarian projects in Afghanistan, valued at approximately USD 3 billion over the past 20 years. The Taliban appreciates India's developmental efforts, seeking continued engagement in humanitarian support and infrastructure development.

India-Maldives Defence Cooperation

India and the Maldives are working to restore and deepen defence ties following a period of strained relations. The recent meeting between Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Maldivian Defence Minister Mohamed Ghassan Maumoon in New Delhi marks a significant step in this direction.

Key Discussion Points

• Defence Equipment Handover:
  • India handed over defence equipment and stores, including utility vehicles and berthing equipment worth Rs 35 crore, at the request of the Maldives.
• Aviation Platforms:
  • Discussions included extending the lease of two Advanced Light Helicopters used for medical evacuation.
• Maritime Security:
  • Talks on the frequent docking of foreign vessels, particularly Chinese, in Maldivian maritime territory.
  • Emphasis on real-time information-sharing for maritime security.
• Ekatha Harbour Project:
  • India urged the Maldives to advance the 'Ekatha' harbour project at Uthuru Thila Falhu (UTF) atoll, a major grant-in-aid project to enhance naval capabilities.

Statements and Commitments

• Confidence Building Measure: The meeting is seen as a step to build confidence and enhance defence cooperation.
• India's Support: Rajnath Singh reaffirmed India's commitment to supporting the Maldives' defence preparedness through capability enhancement and the provisioning of defence platforms.
• Mutual Benefits: The bilateral defence ties aim to benefit both countries and the Indian Ocean region.

The joint statement following President Mohamed Muizzu's visit highlighted India's role as a trusted partner and agreed upon training and capacity-building initiatives for the Maldives National Defence Force.

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Canadian Political Crisis: Trudeau's Resignation and Its Repercussions

Resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Political Turmoil

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned on December 16, signaling a significant shift in Canadian politics as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's position weakened. Trudeau faced immense pressure, not just from the opposition but within his party as well, amidst a paralyzed parliament, declining popularity due to economic issues, and public disapproval of immigration policies.

Challenges from the Opposition and External Pressures

• The opposition Conservative party gained a substantial lead over the Liberals, with some polls indicating a 20% advantage.
• US President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian exports unless Canada halted immigrant and drug flows to the US.
• Trudeau's lack of response to Trump's derisive comments about Canadian sovereignty further weakened his position.

Trudeau's Resignation and Leadership Succession

On January 6, under mounting pressure, Trudeau announced his resignation, stating he would remain in office until a new leader was elected by his party. The Liberal Party now faces the task of electing a successor, with potential candidates including:

• Chrystia Freeland
• Foreign Minister Melanie Joly
• Transport Minister Anita Anand
• Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc
• Former Central Banker Mark Carney

Freeland is currently seen as a strong contender, but the party must choose a leader quickly to face the formidable challenge from the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre.

Impact on Canada-India Relations

Trudeau's tenure saw strained relations with India, exacerbated by his handling of the Hardeep Singh Nijjar case. His comments in the Canadian Parliament regarding India's alleged involvement without conclusive evidence led to diplomatic tensions.

• India dismissed Canada's accusations and requested a reduction in Canadian diplomatic presence; 41 diplomats were recalled in October 2023.
• Trudeau's approach, appealing to domestic pro-Khalistan supporters, was criticized for ignoring Indian concerns about criminals and separatists operating on Canadian soil.

Future Prospects and Diplomatic Challenges

Trudeau's successors will inherit a challenging political landscape, with the task of mending relations with India while contending with domestic issues and pressures from the US. The Nijjar case is expected to continue influencing bilateral ties, overshadowing potential improvements.

Although India has a significant diaspora in Canada, bilateral relations have not been a priority for India due to past grievances, including the handling of the Kanishka bombing and visa issues.

India hopes Trudeau's successors will reverse the diplomatic damage, although domestic priorities and Trump-related challenges may impede progress. ``` 

India's Look East Policy and Odisha's Strategic Importance

External Affairs Minister Dr. S Jaishankar emphasized Odisha's pivotal role in India's Look East Policy, highlighting the state's potential in Trade, Technology, and Tourism (3Ts). He presented a compelling case for investment in Odisha at the 18th annual Pravasi Bhartiya Divas (PBD).

Key Highlights

• Trade:
  • Odisha's historical significance in trade dates back to the 'Bali Yatra', which marked its connection to Southeast Asia.
  • The state's strategic location on the eastern seaboard offers substantial potential for expanding India's trade connections globally.
  • Resources in Odisha require investments, facilities, and connectivity to add value and boost trade.
• Technology:
  • In the digital era, technology is closely associated with trust and talent.
  • Odisha's young demographic and robust educational infrastructure present significant opportunities for technological collaboration.
• Tourism:
  • Odisha holds tremendous potential in tourism, a sector known for its employment generation and multiplier effect.
  • Investing in tourism in Odisha contributes to the state's development and inclusive growth.

Global Partnerships and Growth

The Minister emphasized the importance of global partnerships for India's growth, stressing that no country can grow in isolation. He highlighted the role of Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) and Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs) in fostering such collaborations, which are crucial for resource supplementation, technology infusion, and the introduction of best practices to realize India's potential.