Inflation Trends
After surpassing the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) inflation target in October, inflation has declined:
- October: 6.21%
- November: 5.48%
- December: 5.22% (as per National Statistics Office)
This decline is attributed largely to moderating food prices:
- Consumer food price index: 8.39% in December, down from 9.04% in November
- Vegetable inflation: 26.6% in December
Further reductions in vegetable prices in January might decrease inflation further, opening possibilities for the central bank to ease policy rates.
Currency and Foreign Exchange Reserves
The rupee continues to depreciate, surpassing the 86 mark against the dollar. The dollar is strengthening, with the dollar index around 110. US labor market data shows strength, suggesting limited rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, causing the 10-year US bond yield to rise to 4.78%.
India's foreign exchange reserves have significantly decreased:
- October 4, 2024: $701 billion
- January 3, 2025: $634 billion
This drop indicates the central bank's intervention in the currency market to stabilize the rupee.
Market and Investment Trends
Stock markets are undergoing corrections, with the BSE Sensex dropping by 1.36%. Foreign investors remain net sellers, with foreign portfolio investor investments at -$2.7 billion as of January 13. Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.7% to $81 per barrel due to new US sanctions on Russian oil producers, potentially impacting inflation.
Growth Concerns
There is rising concern over economic growth. After a slowdown in GDP growth to 5.4% in Q2, the RBI revised its annual growth estimate to 6.6%. However, the NSO's first advance estimates suggest growth at 6.4%. Nominal GDP is expected to be below 10% for the second consecutive year.
Future Economic Indicators
Clarity on US tariffs and the Federal Reserve's policy stance is expected post-Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 and the Fed meeting later. The upcoming Union budget will reveal the Centre's fiscal position.
In a climate of increasing uncertainty, the central bank faces narrowing choices.
