Trump's Middle East Policy Overview

Background and Context

• Donald Trump is preparing for his second term as President of the United States, raising questions about his foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East.
• Negotiators from Qatar, Egypt, and the US have been trying to establish a deal between Israel and Hamas.
• Trump has warned of severe consequences if Hamas does not release Israeli hostages by his inauguration day.

The Middle East Under Trump 1.0

• When Trump took office, the Middle East was fraught with conflicts, including the fight against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.
• Saudi Arabia, under Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS), had taken a strong stance against Iran, aligning with the Trump administration's anti-Iran rhetoric.
• The UAE and Saudi Arabia, along with Egypt and Bahrain, imposed a blockade on Qatar due to its ties with Iran and alleged support for the Muslim Brotherhood.

Trump's Key Policy Achievements

• Trump reduced US commitments in Syria, focusing mainly on Tehran by designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist group and revoking the nuclear deal.
• He recognized the Golan Heights as part of Israel and moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem, reinforcing his support for Israel.
• The Abraham Accords, signed in September 2020, normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the UAE and Bahrain.

Current Middle East Scenario

• Significant changes have occurred in the region since 2020, including a shift in Arab leadership's stance on Israel's actions in Gaza and reordering of Iran's Axis of Resistance.
• Saudi Arabia and Iran's relationship is at a "historic turning point," with a recent resolution from the Arab League-OIC Riyadh Summit condemning Israel's actions in Gaza.
• Trump's potential return to maximum pressure on Iran and the impact on US-Saudi negotiations over security guarantees remain uncertain.

Challenges and Future Prospects

• While Trump has generally avoided US combat engagements abroad, the implications for Israel's defense strategies are uncertain.
• The Middle East landscape has evolved significantly, with new challenges and dynamics that differ from when Trump first took office in 2016.