The AI Paradigm Shift: Energy as the Bottleneck

In recent years, the focus on semiconductors has overshadowed a crucial element in AI development: energy. While chips remain vital for AI progression, it's energy that forms the fundamental constraint. As AI compute power rises, so do energy demands, with projections indicating a need for up to 1 GW by 2028 and 8 GW by 2030, akin to eight nuclear reactors.

The Role of the Gulf States

• Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are positioned as key players in AI due to their abundant energy resources and investments in digital infrastructure.
• Significant investments like Nvidia's chip supply to Saudi Arabia's Humain and Amazon's $5 billion AI initiative underscore this shift.
• A major US-UAE project aims to develop a 5GW AI data center in Abu Dhabi, leveraging various energy sources. The project's first phase covers 1GW and is intended to serve nearly half the global population.

The "Compute Triangle"

• The Gulf offers a unique combination of cheap energy, scalable data infrastructure, and investment capital essential for AI.
• This "compute triangle" is unmatched by any other region, establishing the Gulf as a global AI infrastructure hub.

Strategic Implications for the US

• The US strategy, focused on semiconductor export controls, overlooks the essential role of energy in sustaining AI dominance.
• US-Gulf relations should evolve beyond oil. Collaborations on compute infrastructure are crucial for maintaining technological competitiveness.
• Huawei's advancements in AI chips highlight the urgency for deeper US engagement with energy-rich partners.

Conclusion

The Gulf states are advancing rapidly in AI infrastructure, highlighting the necessity for the US to forge a strategic AI-energy partnership. Energy, more than semiconductors, is pivotal for AI's future, and the Gulf holds the potential to fuel the digital century's demands.