The Changing Security Landscape in Jammu & Kashmir

The Pahalgam terror strike on April 22, 2025, by Pakistan proxies, and India's response through Operation Sindoor on May 7, 2025, has significantly shifted the region's security dynamics. While Operation Sindoor achieved tactical success, its long-term impact on reducing terrorism is uncertain.

Key Points of Discussion

• External vs. Internal Focus: Current discussions primarily emphasize foreign policy and military force, often overlooking internal terrorism issues in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).
• Pakistan's Role: Since independence, Pakistan has played a major role in J&K's security situation, with a shift from indigenous insurgency to foreign terrorist involvement since the mid-1990s.

Factors Influencing Terrorism

• Internal Factors: Identity, marginalization, repression, and political disenfranchisement contribute significantly, offering Pakistan leverage to incite trouble.
• Complex Ecosystem: External sponsorship and internal vulnerabilities create a challenging terrorist ecosystem that requires more than military solutions.

Recent Security Developments

• Reduction in Fatalities: SATP data shows a decline in fatalities from over 4,000 in 2001 to 127 in 2024, due to improved security measures, government outreach, and Pakistan's reduced capacity for proxy war.
• Ineffectiveness of Military Actions: Despite kinetic actions like surgical strikes and Balakot, terror-related fatalities increased, indicating military actions alone may not deter Pakistan.

Local Terrorism Dynamics

• Reduced Local Terrorist Participation: In contrast to past levels, local terrorist involvement is currently low, though foreign terrorists are more technologically advanced.
• Exploiting Security Gaps: New groups have emerged, exploiting security voids, leading to deteriorating conditions in some areas.

Strategic Opportunities and Challenges

• Local Support Against Terrorism: The Pahalgam massacre united local populations against terrorists, presenting a strategic opportunity for India.
• Need for Comprehensive Strategy: While external military actions are necessary, a focus on internal dynamics is crucial, involving political engagement, economic development, and social integration.

Conclusion

Operation Sindoor highlights India's capabilities in non-contact warfare but must be complemented by non-kinetic strategies to effectively address terrorism in J&K. A multifaceted approach, acknowledging the fundamental principle of 'people as the center of gravity,' is essential for sustainable peace and deterrence against Pakistan.