Geopolitical Landscape of West Asia Before the attack of Hamas

Before October 7, 2023, West Asia had a distinct geopolitical environment where the Palestinian issue was marginalized, and regional dynamics were significantly influenced by the Abraham Accords of 2020.

• The region was divided with Hamas controlling Gaza and Fatah managing the West Bank.
• Iran, despite its economic difficulties, remained influential through its alliances with resistance groups.
• Persian Gulf monarchies viewed Iran as a threat, thus enhancing cooperation with Israel.
• The United States aimed to integrate Arab countries with Israel against Iran, laying foundations through the Abraham Accords.
• By 2023, Saudi Arabia was in advanced talks to normalize relations with Israel.
• Initiatives like I2U2 and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) were part of efforts to bring economic integration with Israel at its core.

Hamas's October 7, 2023 Attack and Its Aftermath

The attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, killing approximately 1,200 people, fundamentally altered the region's dynamics.

• The attack highlighted the unresolved Palestinian issue and its implications for regional peace.
• Israel responded with a full-scale war targeting Gaza and expanded operations into the broader region.
• The primary goals were the destruction of Hamas and the release of hostages.
• Israel aimed to diminish Iran's influence by targeting its allied militant groups.

Israel's Military Strategy and Regional Implications

Israel's military actions under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were aimed at reshaping the region's power dynamics in favor of Israel.

• Initial successes included damaging Hamas's infrastructure and controlling significant parts of Gaza.
• Despite tactical gains, Israel failed to achieve long-term security or the complete defeat of Hamas.
• Hamas, deeply rooted in Palestinian nationalism, reverted to insurgent tactics.

Regional and International Reactions

• Israel's actions strained relations with Arab countries, leading to a reevaluation of political and security strategies.
• Saudi Arabia's potential normalization with Israel was reconsidered, affecting initiatives like IMEEC.
• Qatar received NATO-style security assurances from the U.S., highlighting regional tensions.

Continued Challenges and Strategic Impasse

Despite some military achievements, Israel faces significant challenges in achieving its strategic objectives.

• Hamas remains resilient, and the Palestinian issue has reemerged as a central geopolitical concern.
• Iran remains a formidable regional actor with a surviving nuclear program.
• Israel's grand diplomatic vision for West Asia is faltering as Arab states increasingly view it as a threat.
• International isolation and dependence on U.S. support continue to characterize Israel’s geopolitical stance.
• Netanyahu's reluctance to make concessions on Palestine complicates the path to peace and regional stability.

In conclusion, Israel's attempts to reshape West Asia through force have not yielded the desired long-term security outcomes, and the region continues to grapple with unresolved issues and shifting alliances.