Trade Diplomacy and National Security

Trade negotiations extend beyond economic concerns to include national power and security, reflecting Thomas Schelling's assertion that "trade policy is national security policy". This perspective is evident in President Donald Trump's use of tariffs to leverage American power, to which some countries like China, Brazil, and India initially resisted.

India's Trade Negotiations and National Interest

• India's agreement to end the trade impasse with the US seems to be a compromise, potentially perceived as capitulation.
• The Modi government has been criticized for a lack of transparency, unlike former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who addressed Parliament with clarity on the US-India civil nuclear energy agreement.
• This lack of transparency has led to ambiguous interpretations of India's trade agreements, such as claims about Russian oil conditionality.

Trade Deals and Economic Policy

The India-US trade deal is portrayed as a necessary compromise, rather than a triumph. It reflects a prioritization of safeguarding livelihoods in export-oriented sectors. The decision to withdraw from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) also exemplifies protecting domestic interests under the guise of national interest.

Perceptions and Political Implications

• The trade deal is not seen as a favour to India, but as a strategic move to maintain US support.
• There is a dual narrative: while the government celebrates the deal, it is seen internationally as India bending under pressure.
• President Trump’s remarks have been interpreted as undermining Indian leadership, contrasting with the past respectful negotiations of the US-India civil nuclear deal.

Uncertainties and Future Considerations

The longevity and implications of the trade deal remain uncertain, with questions about India's future actions if geopolitical tensions arise, such as potential conflicts in the Gulf. The deal is currently termed a "Framework for an Interim Agreement", leaving room for further negotiations and clarifications.

The ongoing narrative emphasizes the need for Prime Minister Modi to clarify India's stance on external economic policies, especially concerning relations with the US and BRICS nations. Addressing these uncertainties is crucial for maintaining transparency and strategic alignment in India's foreign policy.