India's Evolving Diplomacy in West Asia

Recent shifts in India's West Asia policy have sparked domestic debate, driven by substantive interests and strategic needs, reflecting two major trends.

Increased Diplomatic Engagement

• Over the past decade, India has intensified its diplomacy with West Asia, marked by: 
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 15 visits to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
  • Visits to Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and Iran.
  • Signing Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPA) with the UAE and Oman.
  • Ongoing negotiations with the GCC and Israel.
• The GCC is India's largest socio-economic partner, with over $160 billion in bilateral trade and a 10-million-strong diaspora.
• India's political gains include: 
  • De-hyphenation from Pakistan.
  • Stronger defence and security ties.
  • Greater recognition as a responsible power.

Regional Security Dynamics

• The Gulf monarchies prioritize foreign powers that contribute to their security and stability.
• Recent turmoil, including Iranian attacks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven a search for new security paradigms beyond Pax Americana.

India's Diplomatic Reset

• India has launched a qualitative upscaling of relations with key West Asian countries, focusing on: 
  • Hard diplomacy.
  • Direct support to regional security and stability concerns.
• This reset avoids traditional balancing acts and reflects India's growing confidence.

Criticism and Strategic Considerations

• Domestic criticism includes: 
  • Timing of Modi's Israel visit regarded as untimely due to subsequent military actions against Iran.
  • Perceived abandonment of support for Palestinians and Iran.
  • Concerns over strategic overreach and security threats.
• The criticism is viewed as misdirected, as other global players have also not fulfilled their promises to Iran.
• India needs to manage the Palestine cause and maintain strategic ties with Iran.

Future Opportunities and Strategic Movements

• Changes in the "Oil-for-Security" compact could lead GCC states to diversify security partners, possibly favoring India.
• The Iranian retaliations have disrupted GCC economies, creating opportunities for India to position itself as a stable alternative hub.

Conclusion

India's foreign policy in West Asia is evolving, requiring a blend of realism and national interest. It needs consistency, agility, and modulation to effectively respond to regional dynamics, in line with the idea that national interests are perpetual.

Author: Mahesh Sachdev, former Indian Ambassador, expert in West Asia and oil matters.