Impact of Extreme Heat on Global Food Systems
A joint report by the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Meteorological Organization highlights the severe threats posed by extreme heat to global food systems.
Key Findings
- Livelihood Threats: Over 1.23 billion people rely on agriculture, facing increasing heat stress impacting crops, livestock, and fisheries.
- Crop Yield Losses:
- Staple crops such as maize and wheat show yield declines of 7.5% and 6%, respectively, per 1°C rise.
- Projections indicate up to 10% yield loss per degree of warming.
- Human Health Risks:
- Agricultural workers face 35 times higher risk of dying from heat exposure than other sectors.
- Annually, 470 billion working hours are lost due to extreme heat.
- Regional Impact: South Asia, including India, could have up to 250 unsafe working days per year by century's end.
- Gender Disparities: Women are disproportionately affected due to poor sanitation, inadequate water, and longer working hours.
Specific Impacts on India
- Rice Production: India, a leading rice producer, may see reduced output due to heatwaves impacting the Ganga-Indus basin.
- Labour Capacity: Decline in average labour capacity to below 40% during growing season under high emissions scenarios.
- Monsoon and Water Supply:
- El Niño could result in below-normal monsoon, with rain at 92-94% of the long-period average by 2026.
- Groundwater decline and a projected water demand-supply gap of 570 billion cubic metres by 2030.
- Reservoir Levels: Reservoir storage has decreased from 69% to 45% of capacity from February to April.
Broader Environmental Effects
- Heat as a Risk Multiplier:
- Intensifies droughts, reduces soil moisture, spreads pests, stresses livestock, and disrupts marine ecosystems.
- Marine Impact: Over 90% of the global ocean experienced marine heatwaves, affecting 15% of global fisheries.
- Economic Losses: Fisheries' production losses exceed 5.6 million tonnes with $6.6 billion in economic damages.
Recommendations
- Adaptive Strategies:
- Strengthen early-warning systems.
- Invest in heat-resilient crops.
- Enhance water and reservoir management.
- Ensure labour protections.
- Expand digital extension services.
- Mitigation Needs: Addressing rising temperatures requires interventions for both adaptation and mitigation.
