Gas-Based Power Generation Advisory in India
The Grid Controller of India, also known as Grid India, has issued an advisory urging gas-based power stations to prepare fuel procurement arrangements. This recommendation is in anticipation of the requirement for additional gas-fired power generation for 7-8 days in June, due to forecasts of below-normal rainfall during the June–September monsoon season.
Current Capacity and Future Needs
- The advisory highlights a need to augment the existing 2.6 gigawatts (GW) of gas-based generation capacity available from isolated field stations.
- Gas-fired power is crucial for balancing electricity supply during evening peak hours, especially when solar output diminishes.
Assessment Basis
- The assessment considers projected demand, planned and forced outages, hydro and renewable generation profiles, and current weather data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
- Key considerations include historical data for the months mentioned, planned and upcoming capacity, proposed outages, and renewable energy variability.
Impact of Monsoon and Hydro Power Challenges
- Forecasts of below-normal rainfall have prompted hydroelectric power stations to conserve water, affecting their ability to generate electricity.
- This conservation is necessary to maintain water levels for irrigation and electricity generation until the monsoon strengthens in July.
Gas Supply and Market Conditions
- Current conflicts in West Asia have disrupted fuel availability, impacting long-term gas import contracts.
- The government is prioritizing gas allocation during shortages, with only 5 GW of gas-based generation capacity available amid these disruptions.
- The power sector purchased 13,92,500 MMBtu of natural gas from the spot market in June, reflecting increased reliance due to supply chain disruptions.
Spot Market Purchases and Price Trends
- Between April 1 and May 31, the power sector bought 45,07,850 MMBtu of natural gas, a 340.4% increase compared to the previous year.
- Spot-market gas prices have risen sharply due to supply disruptions, with the average price in April at Rs 1,606 per MMBtu, a 43.5% increase from the previous year.
- Prices continued to rise, reaching Rs 1,857 per MMBtu in May and averaging Rs 1,846 per MMBtu in June.
