Reduction in PM2.5 Pollution Levels in Indian Cities

Indian cities have achieved significant progress in reducing PM2.5 pollution levels over the period from 2019 to 2024, with an average reduction of 27% across all cities. Cities under the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) alone recorded a 24% decline.

Top Performers

• Varanasi: 76% reduction.
• Moradabad: 58% reduction.
• Kalaburagi: 57.2% reduction.
• Meerut: 57.1% reduction.
• Katni: 56.3% reduction.
• Agra: 54.1% reduction.
• Baghpat: 53.3% reduction.
• Kanpur: 51.2% reduction.
• Jodhpur: 50.5% reduction.

Highly Polluted Cities in 2024

• Delhi: PM2.5 levels at 107 µg/m³.
• Byrnihat, Assam: 127.3 µg/m³.
• Gurugram: 96.7 µg/m³.
• Faridabad: 87.1 µg/m³.
• Sri Ganganagar: 85.5 µg/m³.
• Greater Noida: 83.9 µg/m³.
• Muzaffarnagar: 83.2 µg/m³.
• Durgapur: 82.0 µg/m³.
• Asansol: 80.3 µg/m³.
• Ghaziabad: 79.9 µg/m³.

Challenges and Observations

Despite improvements, several areas continue to experience high pollution levels, particularly in the northern regions including Delhi-NCR, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh.

National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) Goals

The NCAP was launched in 2019 with an initial target to reduce particulate pollution by 20-30% by 2024, using 2017 as the base year. The target has been revised to a 40% reduction by 2026, with 2019-20 as the reference years. Notably, only PM10 concentration is currently being considered for performance assessments.

Internal Migration in India: Historical and Contemporary Context

Internal migration has been an integral part of India's socio-economic fabric for centuries. This movement of people within the country has historical roots and continues to evolve in response to various factors.

Historical Perspective

• In the 19th century, communities such as: 
  • Marwaris from Rajasthan were known as businessmen in the eastern regions of India.
  • Marathas served as warriors in the northwestern and southern parts of the country.
  • Bengalis, Tamils, and Telugus were employed across the nation by the John Company and later by the British imperial government.

Contemporary Trends

• Factors influencing increased internal migration: 
  • Economic Development: Growth in various sectors has created opportunities, prompting people to move for better prospects.
  • Education: The spread of education has empowered individuals to seek opportunities beyond their traditional home regions.
  • Youth Demographic: A significant youth population is contributing to the rise in internal migration as they seek employment and other opportunities.
• The Covid-19 lockdown highlighted the scale of internal migration as special trains and buses were organized to transport migrant workers back to their native places.

EXIM Bank Overseas Bond Issuance

EXIM Bank has successfully raised $1 billion (approximately Rs 8,570 crore) through an overseas bond issuance. This issuance was done at very competitive rates to fund its global initiatives.

Key Highlights

• Competitive Pricing: Achieved at "the tightest spread ever achieved from India," with a final pricing of US treasury plus 1% and a negative new issue concession of 0.05%.
• Investor Distribution:
  • 50% from Asia
  • Approximately 33% from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa
  • 18% from the US
• Investor Types:
  • Nearly two-thirds are asset and fund managers
  • 18% are banks
  • 16% are insurance, pension funds, and public sector entities
  • Private banks and others follow
• Order Book: Peaked at $2.7 billion, supported by the bank's quasi-sovereign status, strong credit profile, and India's inclusion in the JP Morgan emerging bond index.

Credit Ratings

• Moody's: Baa3 (Stable)
• S&P: BBB- (Positive)
• Fitch: BBB- (Stable)

Significance and Impact

The Department of Financial Services (DFS) praised this as a "fantastic start" to the year for Indian issuers in global capital markets. The transaction reflects the confidence of overseas investors in the India story.

EXIM Bank's Role

EXIM Bank provides financial assistance to exporters and importers, serving as a principal financial institution for coordinating financing of export and import activities to promote India's international trade.

Fiscal Deficit and Economic Projections for FY25

The fiscal deficit for the financial year 2024-25 (FY25) is expected to remain within target, despite a lower-than-budgeted nominal GDP growth rate of 9.7%, as per the First Advance Estimates by the National Statistics Office (NSO).

Key Points

• The government aims to manage the fiscal deficit at Rs 16.13 trillion, representing 4.9% of GDP for FY25.
• The capital expenditure (capex) target for FY25 was set at Rs 11.1 trillion, but experts anticipate it will be missed by Rs 1–1.5 trillion.

GDP Projections

• The Budget assumed a nominal GDP growth of 10.5% for FY25.
• According to NSO, the nominal GDP is expected to reach Rs 324.11 trillion in FY25, up from Rs 295.36 trillion in 2023-24.

Fiscal Performance and Capex

• Data from the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) indicates that the government utilized 52.5% of the fiscal deficit target by November FY25, which is 6.6% lower than the previous year.
• Capex declined by 12.3% year-on-year for April–November FY25, with only 46.2% of the target utilized, compared to 58.5% in the previous year.

Revenue Collection

• Net tax revenue collections reached 56% of the Budget Estimates (BE) for April–November FY25, compared to 62% in the previous year.
• Income tax collections rose by 24% year-on-year, while corporate tax collections decreased by 1%.

Overall Economic Outlook

• The absolute GDP is estimated at Rs 324.11 trillion, slightly below the BE of Rs 326.37 trillion.
• This deficit is unlikely to significantly impact fiscal consolidation in FY25, given current revenue and expenditure trends.

Additional Insights

• There is an expected consumption increase and slower capex for FY25.
• India's GDP is anticipated to grow by 6.4% in 2024-25.

First Advance Estimates of National Income 2024-25

The National Statistics Office (NSO) has released the First Advance Estimates (FAE) of national income for the financial year 2024-25.

Economic Growth Projections

• The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.4 per cent in 2024-25.
• This is a decrease from the 8.2 per cent growth rate in 2023-24.
• The new estimate is slightly below the Reserve Bank of India's projection of 6.6 per cent.
• This growth rate is the lowest since the contraction during the Covid year (2020-21).

Nominal Growth Rate

• In nominal terms, the economy is set to expand by 9.7 per cent, which is a slight increase from 9.6 per cent in the previous financial year.

The First Advance Estimates were anticipated after the observed growth rate in the second quarter of the financial year.