Indian Economic Growth Forecast

The Indian economy is anticipated to grow by 6.6% in 2025 and 6.7% in 2026, as per the UN's World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025 report.

Key Growth Drivers

• The public sector plays a crucial role in funding infrastructure, digital connectivity, and social infrastructure.
• Strong investment growth is projected to continue into 2025.
• Expansion in the manufacturing and services sectors will drive the economy.
• Robust export growth in services and specific goods like pharmaceuticals and electronics is expected.

Agricultural Outlook

The 2024 favorable monsoon rains have boosted summer sowing, improving agricultural output expectations for 2025.

Regional Economic Projections

South Asia's economy is expected to grow at 5.7% in 2025 and 6% in 2026, primarily driven by India.

Risks to Economic Outlook

• Potential escalation of geopolitical tensions.
• Deceleration in external demand and ongoing debt challenges.
• Social unrest and vulnerability to climate hazards.

Inflation and Global Growth

Consumer price inflation is forecast to decrease from 4.8% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025, within the RBI's medium-term target range of 2–6%.

Global growth is projected to remain steady at 2.8% in 2025.

Opportunities and Challenges

India and other resource-rich developing countries have opportunities to boost growth and create jobs through rising demand for critical minerals.

However, these opportunities come with risks, necessitating forward-looking policies, fair benefit-sharing, and sustainable resource extraction practices.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the need for global cooperation to manage economic shocks and climate risks effectively.

Introduction of Self-Attestation Facility by EPFO

The Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) is set to introduce a self-attestation facility beginning in June, which will allow its 80 million active members to complete the Know Your Customer (KYC) process without requiring employer approval.

Current KYC Process

• KYC is a one-time process that verifies members' identities by linking their Universal Account Number (UAN) with KYC details.
• Currently, the process requires employer approval, causing delays and potential issues if a firm has closed.

The new self-attestation facility will eliminate paperwork and decrease claim rejections.

EPFO 3.0 and IT Infrastructure Upgrade

EPFO is upgrading its information technology (IT) infrastructure to accommodate the influx of new subscribers from three employment-linked incentive (ELI) schemes.

Features of EPFO 3.0

• Focus on scalability to provide enhanced services to members.
• Expected increase of active members to potentially reach 100 million.

New Withdrawal Facility

EPFO is considering a partnership with banks to introduce a new facility enabling members to withdraw money up to a certain limit without filing claims.

Union Labour Minister Mansukh Mandaviya mentioned efforts to develop a robust platform for hassle-free money withdrawal, akin to the banking system.

Planned EPFO 3.0 Launch

The EPFO aims to launch EPFO 3.0 by March, with a goal to resolve nearly all user queries through an effective redressal system.