30th Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC
The 30th COP session will be held in November in Belem, Brazil, focusing on the global challenge of climate change mitigation. The UNFCCC emphasizes that climate change requires collective global action, as no single country can sufficiently address the risks alone.
Evolution of Responsibilities
Initially, the UNFCCC placed primary mitigation responsibilities on developed countries. However, this has evolved:
- Developed countries have moved away from "common but differentiated responsibilities" towards voluntary national commitments for all, as seen in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
- Developing countries like China and India are now central to global climate action, accepting responsibilities not envisioned in the original framework.
Challenges in Meeting Climate Targets
The 2015 Paris Agreement aimed to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, with efforts for 1.5°C. However, current actions make these targets unlikely:
- The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024 indicates current commitments could lead to a 2.6-2.8°C rise, with potential for 3.1°C if additional actions aren't taken.
- The IPCC high-end emissions scenario remains the trend as of 2024.
Economic Impacts of Climate Change
- An ADB report suggests that climate change could reduce GDP in developing Asia and the Pacific by 17% by 2070, with India facing a potential 24.7% hit if high-end scenarios occur.
Immediate Threats and Future Prospects
Rising temperatures pose immediate and future threats:
- The WMO predicts annual global temperatures from 2024-2028 to be 1.1°C to 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 baseline.
- Recent heatwaves in Europe and North America highlight the urgency.
Role of Major Emitters
Effective climate action requires focus on six major emitters, responsible for 74% of cumulative emissions as of 2023:
- the United States, the European Union (including the UK), China, Russia, Japan, and India.
- Developed countries emphasize current emissions, yet per capita emissions remain higher in these countries than in developing ones like India and China.
United States' Contradictory Actions
The US has shown inconsistent commitment, impacting global climate efforts:
- While there were positive steps under Obama and Biden, the US's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and policy reversals hindered progress.
Need for Stronger Commitments
With climate change a growing threat, COP 30 aims to push developed countries for stronger mitigation actions:
- Brazil and India, along with other low-emitter nations, can advocate for "common but differentiated responsibilities" to be re-emphasized.
