Impact of Super El Niño on Heat-Related Mortality in India

India is projected to experience approximately 15,800 more heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 compared to a normal year. This increase is largely attributed to the Super El Niño event, as reported by the Climate Impact Lab (CIL) from the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute.

Global and Regional Impact

• Globally, the report estimates 451,000 excess deaths due to the current El Niño episode, with 239,000 of these deaths occurring in the forecast window (September 2026–February 2027).
• The Sahel regions including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad are projected to witness around 66,800 additional deaths.
• Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, will see a combined 19,400 excess deaths.

Specific Findings for India

• The temperature spike will result in 44% more 'extremely hot' days than expected in a normal year.
• During December 2026 to February 2027 alone, India is expected to have approximately 7,400 additional heat deaths.
• Unlike other regions, India's risk does not taper off during this period; it is anticipated to continue beyond the current forecast horizon, affecting summer months.
• India ranks fourth globally for projected heat deaths this winter, behind Nigeria, Indonesia, and Sudan.

Contributing Factors

El Niño causes abnormal warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, suppressing the Indian monsoon and leading to higher temperatures.

Research by CIL highlights that temperature relates to excess deaths, considering local climate, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Authors describe the current warm spell as a “postcard from the future”, offering a rare opportunity for India and other nations to take proactive measures before the potential deaths occur, rather than reacting afterward.