India-China Relations
Recent developments indicate a shift in India's approach towards China, marked by a more conciliatory tone. This change is reflected in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statements emphasizing dialogue for building a stable, cooperative relationship, which is crucial for global stability and prosperity.
Background
- India-China relations have been slowly recovering since the 2020 incursions by China across the Line of Actual Control into Ladakh, which resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers.
- Military talks have led to the disengagement of forces from several border sites, despite a diplomatic freeze.
- Bilateral trade between India and China has continued to grow, setting new records.
Current Dynamics
- India made a deal with China to disengage troops from the last two incursion sites less than six months ago.
- It's uncertain if Modi's comments indicate a substantive policy shift or merely a change in tone, with New Delhi possibly keeping its options open.
- The structural rivalry between India and China persists, as evidenced by recent meetings between India's Chief of Defence Staff and senior commanders from Quad partners (Australia, Japan, and the United States).
Strategic Considerations
India's grand strategy prioritizes national economic development, making it prudent to defuse military confrontations with China, its largest trading partner. India's economy is significantly smaller than China's, making a stable relationship beneficial.
U.S. Involvement
- The Modi government has been closely observing the Trump administration's ambiguous policy stance towards China.
- Despite imposing tariffs on Beijing, Trump suggested cutting defense spending in half for the U.S., China, and Russia.
- America's historical security guarantees have been shaken, highlighting New Delhi's need for independent military capabilities.
Military Implications
- New Delhi must not reduce investments in military capabilities despite a potential stabilisation policy with China.
- India's defense spending, as a share of the national budget and GDP, has declined over the past decade.
- Significant time is required to build military capabilities, such as submarines and fighter aircraft.
- Operational cooperation with partners should continue to build Indian military capability.
Conclusion
India must pair its conciliatory approach with the capacity to deter aggression to prevent stability from turning into submission. Ongoing Chinese aggression indicates the need for robust military preparedness.