Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion
The outgoing administration of Joe Biden introduced the 'Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion', targeting export and security regulations for the global AI market. It classifies countries into three tiers based on their trust levels with the US.
Tier Classification and Implications
- Tier-1 Countries: Includes nations like Britain and Australia, where US companies face no restrictions on deploying computing power.
- Tier-2 Countries: This includes India, which may face restrictions on importing GPUs unless computing power is hosted in secure environments.
- Tier-3 Countries: Encompasses Russia, China, Libya, and North Korea, with almost total bans on US tech exports.
India's Position and Challenges
- Potential Competitor: India's tier-2 status suggests it might be seen as a potential competitor to the US in AI.
- Diplomatic Leverage: The classification could be used as pressure in trade and diplomatic negotiations.
- Navigating VEU Programme: Indian firms must manage the General Validated End User (VEU) programme linking tech access to US foreign policy.
- Impact on Collaboration: US restrictions might hinder collaboration with international players in regions like Russia, Southeast Asia, and Africa.
Impacts of the New Rule
- Global Competitiveness: The rule may impede Indian AI companies' competitiveness by causing delays and reducing appeal for AI-related foreign investments.
- Access to Technology: Crucial for sustaining technological leadership, restricted access could slow economic growth and affect India's position in global value chains (GVCs).
- Geopolitical Implications: The US sees India as a strategic competitor, influencing Indo-Pacific alliances and managing ties with non-aligned states.
Diplomatic Coercion and Strategic Assets
The AI diffusion regime may become a diplomatic tool, highlighting AI as a strategic asset in global power dynamics. For India, it emphasizes the intertwining of technology and geopolitics, necessitating a reassessment of its technological strategy and alliances.