Impact of February Climate in North India on Agriculture
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected warmer than normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall for north India in February, which could adversely impact agriculture.
Potential Impact on Crops
- Wheat:
- Wheat, a crucial Rabi crop, is at risk during its flowering and grain filling stages.
- Major wheat-producing states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are expected to be most affected.
- Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh may face less impact due to more favorable weather conditions.
- Other Crops:
- Mustard and chickpea crops may mature early.
- Horticultural crops like apples and temperate stone fruits could experience premature bud break and early flowering, leading to poor fruit quality and yield.
Temperature and Rainfall Forecast
- Night temperatures are expected to be above normal in most parts of the country, except in northwest and southern peninsular India.
- Day temperatures may be normal to above normal in most regions, with some areas in west-central and southern peninsular India experiencing below-normal maximum temperatures.
Global Climate Conditions
- Weak La Niña conditions are present over the equatorial Pacific, with below-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- These conditions are expected to persist until April 2025, transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions, which can influence monsoon performance.