Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, governing the use of waters from rivers flowing from India into Pakistan's Indus river basin, has been suspended by India. This decision comes after a terrorist attack in Jammu & Kashmir, which India attributes to cross-border terrorism. India demands Pakistan's "credible and irrevocable" renunciation of such activities as a precondition for resuming the treaty.

Treaty Details and History

• Brokered by: World Bank
• Signed on: September 19, 1960
• Water Allocation:
  • Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan
  • Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India

Implications of Suspension

• India's Rights:
  • Utilize western rivers for non-consumptive purposes like limited irrigation and hydropower.
  • Constraints previously prevented storage or diversion impacting downstream access.
• Pakistan's Dependency: Over 80% of its irrigation relies on Indus basin waters.
• Future Actions: India plans to enhance storage and water transfer capacity, previously restricted by the treaty.

Hydropower and Storage Developments

India could potentially realize 20,000 MW from western rivers but had only achieved 3,000 MW by 2016. With projects underway, this capacity is expected to increase to 6,000 MW by 2026-27. The treaty's suspension may accelerate hydropower project approvals.

Strategic Implications

• Signal to Pakistan: India seeks to leverage water flows as a strategic tool against cross-border terrorism.
• Potential for Treaty Modification: India may use suspension to renegotiate on terms more favorable to its interests.

International and Diplomatic Reactions

• World Bank's Role: Limited to specific tasks without commenting on sovereign decisions.
• Pakistan's Response: Any attempt by India to divert water could be considered an act of war. Threats to suspend the Simla Agreement and other accords if water flow is altered.

Future Prospects

India is working on a comprehensive strategy, including short-term, medium-term, and long-term measures like river desilting to control water flow to Pakistan. The situation underscores a more assertive Indian approach, linking treaty compliance to Pakistan's cessation of terrorism support.